This article was based on public information available for the pandemic before February 2020. Since I wrote this article, the virus has spread across the world, resulting in a pandemic that has killed over 1 million people worldwide. Much of the information in this article is now out-of-date. You should make sure that you read the latest information before coming to any conclusions about the disease.
As of 1st February 2020, there have been 12,027 confirmed cases of coronavirus globally, with 259 deaths due to the disease. While on the surface this outbreak doesn't seem a bad as other epidemics in the past (read my post on Ebola here), due to many unknown variables and other issues with the virus, governments and organisations like the World Health Organisation and the Centre for Disease Control, have declared emergencies and scrambled to contain the virus. In this blog post, I hope to explain what coronavirus is, how it affects humans, and how governments are acting to reduce the spread of the disease.
Despite the fact that the virus causing the 2019-2020 outbreak in Wuhan is often called 'coronavirus', coronaviruses are actually a group of viruses. While there are many different viruses in the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae (which are all called coronaviruses), they all cause disease specifically in mammals and birds. Coronaviruses are also linked in that they cause respiratory problems in humans. Aside from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which is responsible for the current outbreak in China, other coronaviruses include incredibly serious ones such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), as well as less serious ones such as those that cause the common cold (15% of common colds are caused by a type of coronavirus).
Before I continue, I think it's important for me to describe the symptoms of the novel coronavirus. Unfortunately, the symptoms of 2019-nCoV mimic those of other upper respiratory tract infections (such as cough, high temperature, breathing difficulties, having a runny nose and feeling lethargic). As such, this immediately creates difficulties in diagnosing people with the disease and isolating them to prevent transmission. Nevertheless, by checking whether people exhibiting symptoms have recently travelled to high-risk areas or come into contact with infected people, we can deduce how likely it is that someone has been infected with the disease and act accordingly.
Similar to many epidemics in recent history, it is likely that the new type of coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originally developed in animals before crossing the species barrier and infecting humans. Even though we are in the early stages of research, the most recent papers suggest that the virus originated from bats. This is because, according to David Robertson, a virologist at the University of Glasgow, the virus is closely related to SARS and coronaviruses found in bats, thus making it quite likely that this is where the disease originated from. Some papers have also suggested that the virus may have originated from snakes, however, this seems unlikely to be the case, as there is no evidence that coronavirus has infected snakes or any other reptiles.
Early hypotheses speculate that novel coronavirus likely then crossed the species barrier by infecting workers in the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan. This was later confirmed when Chinese state media reported that 33 positive matches were made between samples from the market and the DNA of 2019-nCoV. Nevertheless, as the incubation period for the virus is around 2 weeks, it is possible that the disease originated from elsewhere, before cases connected to the seafood market were reported.
Considering that in both the bird flu epidemic in 1997 and the SARS epidemic of 2002-2003, Chinese authorities suppressed evidence of an outbreak for as long as possible and underreported new cases, there are some suspicions that the full story is not clear and this epidemic is much worse than we think. Regardless, perhaps because of the fact that the internet and social media make it much harder to control information, President Xi Jinping has been quick to act to not only control the disease but also show the international community how transparent he is being about this epidemic. To that end, he has instructed state officials to immediately report cases to the media and invited WHO investigators into Wuhan.
While there is currently no treatment for the disease, scientists are working on creating a vaccine. In addition, steps can also be taken to treat the symptoms of 2019-nCoV to make the patient more comfortable, in the hope that the body's immune system will be able to fight off the disease.
So, what are governments doing about this outbreak? Starting with China, on 23 January 2020, the government announced a quarantine around the city of Wuhan, with all flights and public transportation in and out of the city cancelled. Within days, other neighbouring cities in Hubei province announced similar measures, with some roads being sealed, and all cars on others being sterilised. Residents were also instructed to stay at home as much as possible, wear masks and wash their hands to limit the spread of the disease. In addition, China also announced that it would build several hospitals in the affected area, each with around 1000 beds, in a matter of days. In this way, they hope to treat as many of the infected people as possible.
Foreign countries have also been quick to act, with several countries including the UK and USA evacuating their citizens from the area. In most cases, citizens evacuated from Wuhan or Hubei province have been quarantined and will remain so for 2 weeks to ensure they are not carrying novel coronavirus. Flights inbound from China to some destinations are also being screened. In addition, many airlines including British Airways, Qantas and Air New Zealand have suspended flights to mainland China altogether until this epidemic has been stopped. Experts are therefore worried that this curb of international travel into China will decimate its economy and damage its trade with other countries.
In conclusion, as long as governments continue to take decisive action to reduce the spread of the disease, such as quarantining and treating infected people, as well as preparing health services to deal with an influx of cases in case the outbreak becomes more serious and spread internationally, then the risk to people outside of China is minimal. Meanwhile, people in affected areas need to take care to reduce their exposure to the disease and wait until health authorities sanitise public areas and bring the disease under control.
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